ChrisCam Broadsheet

2498.\\ The Coming Collapse of China

I've long held the belief, based on my studies at college, that China would one day collapse of its own weight. The forces at work in that part of the world for the past 3000 years aren't likely to change overnight, nor have they changed since the Communists took power 60 years ago. Even more unchanging is human nature. This collapse, brought on by loosening central power, is no different in its dynamics than any other time in China's history when similarly authoritarian control was loosened just enough for the entire thing to come unwound. Add to this loosening of CCP power an immense uptick in the materialism and driven self-interest of the various regions of China and you have the ingredients for a massive splintering of the nation into a modern version of Warring States.

A recent article by Gordon Chang in Forbes detailed how the Chinese Miracle may in fact be totally fraudulent (you should read Gordon if you are remotely interested in the future of Asia). An article in the Politico today backs that up. As does the movements of various hedge fund managers and investors including the one who correctly identified the phoniness of Enron. Now granted, figuring out a company is cooking the books is different than figuring out a secretive nation is cooking the books. But the point is that not all is as it appears to be in the Middle Kingdom.

Which brings me back to my own, long held, prediction. If China collapses or begins to, the leaders will try anything to remain in power. This includes whipping up nationalism by manufacturing a war with America over Taiwan or the South China Sea or imported chicken.

In any event, if China collapses they will stop financing our debt. This will hurt us. If China collapses and tries to take it out on America, this will hurt us. Either way we should prepare for a rough go of it where China is concerned.

Of course, our only concern as a nation at the moment is whether someone is going to give us health care for free, not the imminent collapse of the international order.

Reported by Christo the Elder on November 10, 2009 @ 13:04

 TAGGED AS: America, Asia, Capitalism, CCP, China, Communism, Economy, Finance, Forbes, Gordon Chang, Politico, Totalitarianism, War

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